Latin America. The Macro news is not so encouraging for the countries of the Region, since the World Bank has cut its growth forecasts for most countries, (with the exception of Colombia, Ecuador and the Caribbean, the latter given the rebound in US consumption), basically as a result of the fall in oil prices, the lags of the crisis, and the weakness of banking systems.
Advanced economies are expected to perform better in the coming periods than developing economies, although we should not fail to mention that the latter still account for 70% of global growth.
In this context, the Business Bureau believes that in general terms, the industry will experience a slight contraction with respect to the growth shown in previous years, product of a mix of variables that combine exogenous factors (Fall of regional economies) and endogenous (growth of Cord-cutting, impact by the incorporation of new technologies, etc.).
And although he believes that the growth of the following years will occur in a decreasing way (at a slower pace than shown in previous periods) he indicates that there are still opportunities in the market, explained by a combination of Macro and Micro industry factors:
1. Countries with poorly penetrated markets with falling poverty and unemployment rates will reduce the segment of the population without the possibility of access to services.
2. New price-focused services, aimed at providing solutions to the need for lower prices, would facilitate access to Pay-TV at historically excluded levels.
3. Improvements in the distribution of income (either by social actions or by a better distribution of wealth).
4. Greater presence of DTH that allow access in rural areas or difficult to reach for cabling networks.
5. The expected compound growth rates for the period 2015-2019 in the Region will be around 4 points, with countries that will show growth close to 1 point (argentina case) and others that will have growth above 8 points (Ecuador and Peru case).
The subscriber fleet for the year 2019 will be around 83 million subscribers, not counting those who are in illegality.
The Business Bureau also indicated that in contexts such as the current ones, with countries that are experiencing a depreciation of their currencies against the dollar, special attention should be paid to sub-reporting, given that in this context, it would be a way to recover the revenues that are lost as a result of the devaluation. In the same vein, these contexts create a climate conducive to providers of illegal systems.
