Mexico. 2022 was a year of chiaroscuro for both the Mexican economy and the telecommunications sector as a whole. While it is true that economic growth at the end of the year seems more encouraging, with a rate of 2.8% expected in 2022 and 0.95% for 2023.
This is established by the Survey on the Expectations of Specialists in Private Sector Economics carried out by Banco de México, the dynamism of economic activity is still below that registered in 2018.
Likewise, incessant inflation continues to erode people's purchasing power. The latter, together with the tightening of financial conditions with the increase in interest rates, the persistent disruptions caused by the pandemic, and the recession of the main economies of the world, mainly the North American, predict a convoluted dynamic for 2023.
In this context, it is worth analyzing the evolution of the telecommunications sector in Mexico and its forecasts for the end of 2022 and the coming 2023.
Evolution of Telecommunications in 2022
In recent years, telecommunications have shown their resilience in the face of macroeconomic shocks and the public health crisis, with 2022 not being the difference. In the first three quarters of 2022, the growth of the telecommunications sector in Mexico reached an average of 4.0%.
Fixed connectivity (telephony and broadband) is experiencing a growing trend of adoption that accelerated at the beginning of the pandemic. This is based on the growing expansion of networks and the intensification in the use of fixed broadband for educational, social, productive, cultural activities, among others. Thus, in September, there was an average growth of 4.2% in telephony accesses and 6.9% in fixed broadband accesses.
On the other hand, convergent communications companies (restricted television, telephony and internet) climbed their revenue accounting, averaging an annual growth of 6.0%. All this is attributable to the improvement of its services, both in the ability to download the internet, and in access to content and entertainment platforms through the internet.
Meanwhile, the mobile telecommunications market in Mexico reached an average annual growth of 5.3%, in terms of revenue. In its breakdown by components, there was a contraction of -8.1% due to the sale of mobile devices, which was offset and exceeds
In terms of the number of mobile lines, this segment has recorded a positive evolution in recent years, despite the influence of external factors. Thus, during the first three quarters of 2022 the average growth of the lines was 6.0%, in an upward trajectory quarter after quarter.
Based on the previous trajectories and the projection of better economic activity at the end of the year, growth of between 4.2% and 4.6% is expected for the telecommunications sector in Mexico, with a central value of 4.4%, similar to that registered during 2021.
Sector Expectations for 2023
The incessant evolution in the consumption of voice minutes, channels and contracted content, but above all the expansion in fixed and mobile connectivity, together with the growing deployment and development of new generation networks and innovation in the offer of services, is forecast to result in a growth of the telecommunications sector of 3.4% during 2023.
An additional factor that can act as a catalyst for the sector or an obstacle to this dynamism is regulatory decisions. Next year the third revision of the asymmetric regulation of preponderance is anticipated, spectrum tenders for 5G optical bands, as well as the constitution of the National Infrastructure Information System (SNII). All these elements should promote a more competitive ecosystem and a balance in market conditions between operators that allow to effectively navigate the economic adversities that are predicted.
Analysis by Carlos Hernández of The Competitive Intelligence Unit, CIU.
